Posted by Larry Hoover on February 5, 2007, at 6:53:04
In reply to 'Humans blamed for climate change', posted by Meri-Tuuli on February 2, 2007, at 15:23:21
The global warming "debate" is hardly one at all, IMHO. Scientists from 130 countries, thousands of them, have created a consensus document. I don't know that has ever happened before in the history of science. Ever.
The opponents, the skeptics, are really very few in number. What amazes me is that the media give them equal press. The result is a common perception that both perspectives deserve equal consideration. I know the numbers alone do not support an argument for correctness, but the ratio of proponents to opponents (in the scientific community alone) is greater than 99:1. Less than 1% of climate scientists are in opposition to the anthropogenic nature of global warming. There are two embedded concepts. Global warming is happening. And people caused it. I think both are true.
I'm almost loathe to say it, absent clear proof, but there's pretty good evidence that at least a few of the most vocal opponents are funded by oil company lobby groups. Hired mouthpieces, remeniscent of what the tobacco companies did for thirty years. Anyway.
One of the commonest misconceptions is that the weather will simply be warmer everywhere. That is not the case. Both computer modelling and actual observations support the prediction that the atmosphere will become more turbulent as it warms. Like a pot left to simmer on the stove, if the heat goes up a bit, the pot will boil up. Cold polar air will have greater incursions towards the tropics, as the jet stream oscillates with greater amplitude. Meanwhile, the poles themselves will warm, because the cold has moved elsewhere. The individual incursions of cold air southward will be brief (weather events), whereas the polar warming will occur over years (climate). It is hard for us to separate the two, because our experiential view of the world is day to day.
In North America, I think there will be more ice storms, as opposed to snow events. Winter thunderstorms might even become commonplace, as the clash of Gulf warm moist air with cold Arctic air masses provides a huge temperature gradient.
Global warming means more variation in weather, but with an average increase in climate. That's my take.
Lar
poster:Larry Hoover
thread:729113
URL: http://www.dr-bob.org/babble/social/20070130/msgs/729896.html